New U.S. Local Ad Forecasts Show Digital Growing Faster Due to a ‘Great Reshuffling’ of Local Businesses

Major research overhaul by Borrell uncovers 1.6 million additional U.S. business establishments and a dramatic reshuffling of the local advertising market

WILLIAMSBURG, VA, UNITED STATES, November 2, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ -- Local digital advertising is growing nearly twice as fast as previously forecast, fueled by a dramatic reshuffling of the nation's business landscape and surging demand for streaming video, according to new forecasts from Borrell Associates. As a result, Borrell predicts, digital will claim 75% of local advertising by the end of 2027, growing to 80% by 2030. The company will anounce its full findings during a webinar Nov. 11.

The new forecast puts U.S. local advertising expenditures at $155.6 billion in 2027, up 3.9% from the projected spending of $149.7 billion in 2026. Digital media is forecast to grow 6.7%, while traditional forms of print, broadcast, and outdoor media will be down 3.5%, Borrell says.

The findings are part of a sweeping new set of forecasts through 2030, following what Borrell says is one of the most extensive research and data-modeling initiatives in its 25-year history of tracking local advertising. The announcement coincides with the launch Borrell's new AI access point to advertising data for more than 3,100 U.S. counties, found at borrell.ai.

"We knew digital advertising was growing rapidly, but our research uncovered a much bigger shift than our earlier forecasts suggested," said Corey Elliott, SVP of Local Market Intelligence at Borrell. "Though traditional media companies will rake in more than $18 billion in digital ad revenue this year, it represents a fairly small share – 16% of the total digital pie.”

Surge in Local Online Video
Online video is the fastest-growing form of advertising. Borrell forecasts 10% growth in 2027, following 13.5% growth in 2026—nearly twice its previous estimate of 7.3%. That makes streaming video the largest among all 18 types of media, dethroning Search Engine Marketing (SEM), which has held that position since 2013.

Reshuffling of Local Businesses
Borrell's research reveals that the United States added approximately 1.6 million business establishments between 2020 and 2025, an increase of 15%, from 10.5 million to 12.1 million. Underlying that trend were some stunning figures. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates 5.6 million establishments closed in that period, creating a churn from an estimated 7.3 million newly establishments that favored service-oriented businesses over retailers.

Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and other sources, Borrell found that information-sector establishments increased 49%, professional and business services grew 29%, and health and education increased 20%. By comparison, the combined retail, wholesale, and transportation sector grew just 4%.

“That change in business mix is important,” said Gordon Borrell, CEO of Borrell Associates. “Traditional media companies have always relied more heavily on retail advertisers. Now that the Amazon truck has replaced a lot of those businesses, local media is having to scramble.”

Borrell also found that the average private business became smaller, declining from 12.7 employees in 2019 to 11.3 in 2025—an 11% decrease.

Traditional Media Declines Accelerate
While digital advertising grows, traditional local advertising continues to contract. Borrell projects a 3.5% decline in traditional local advertising expenditures in 2027, following a 3.8% decline in 2026. Local newspaper advertising is projected to fall 12% in 2026, radio 4.5%, and broadcast television 4%. Direct mail is expected to remain flat.

Extensive Research and New AI Access
The new forecasts reflect a comprehensive reassessment of advertising expenditures, business activity, and media classifications. The research draws on more than 1,700 documents from 833 organizations and covers 101 business categories across 3,143 U.S. counties. Borrell used more than 600 sources in its latest overhaul of local market advertising.

In tandem with the forecasts, Borrell has introduced an AI access point to its advertising intelligence through a Model Context Protocol (MCP) server, allowing users to query market data through compatible AI platforms using natural-language questions. Details are available at https://borrell.ai

Gordon Borrell
Borrell Associates Inc.
+1 757-221-6641
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